Asian Development Bank (ADB) raises Pakistan's growth forecast to 3%

Morning! Apparently, if the company CEO dies, the stock prices really do tank (sorry, Kendall from Succession, it seems like you weren’t being dramatic).

UnitedHealth and CVS Health stocks dropped over 6% after UnitedHealth’s CEO, Brian Thompson, got shot in broad daylight. The accused shooter, Luigi Mangione, had openly criticized the healthcare industry, and now there is fresh outrage online about insurers’ profit-driven models.

We really hope that their execs and investors aren’t seeing all the wild memes thirsting over the shooter.

In this week’s edition:

📈 Wall Street is hopeful about 2025

💰 2.8% to 3%

💻 Google’s introduces ‘Willow’

🏍️ The EV industry wants a ‘favourite child’ treatment

- The Itla Squad 💼

Business

Global 🌎️

Cuffing prediction season is here

It’s that time of the year again: Wall Street’s top experts shared their predictions for the stock market in 2025.

The details:

• Experts think the stock market in 2025 could drop by 5% or grow by up to 20%, with 10% growth being most likely.

• Lower interest rates may help some industries grow, but inflation and economic slowdowns could still be a problem.

• AI technology, led by companies like Nvidia, is expected to play a big role in market growth, but success depends on how well it performs.

• The U.S. election and new policies, like tariffs (you can go over our last edition for this) or managing national debt, could also affect how the market performs.

• Inflation is down, and the Fed is expected to continue lowering interest rates, but concerns about stagflation (persistent inflation despite a soft economy) could arise.

• Key sectors to watch for growth include technology, healthcare, and energy, with AI expected to drive significant investments in the tech sector.

Way forward: To prepare for 2025, think about balancing your investments (shocker, we know). Include stable dividend stocks for safety and focus on growing industries like technology and consumer goods. Keep an eye on economic changes and global events to adjust your plans as needed.

TLDR: Experts predict the stock market in 2025 could see 10% growth, with a range between -5% and 20%. Lower interest rates may help some sectors, while inflation and global issues, including U.S. election policies, pose risks. AI technology is expected to drive growth, especially in tech. To prepare, focus on a balanced investment strategy, with a mix of stable dividend stocks and growth industries like tech and healthcare.

What else is new in news

✶Macy's, a major American department store chain, announced on Wednesday that it had completed an investigation into an employee who hid $151 million in delivery expenses from its financial records for nearly three years.

As a result, Macy's updated two things: its financial statements for those years and its ‘just-fired’ employees list.

Local 🇵🇰

Mission impossible? Sharing a good news about Pak’s economy

The impossible has happened: we have a good news about our economy.

Asian Development Bank (ADB) has Pakistan’s economy, predicting a 3% growth rate for fiscal year 2024-25, better than earlier estimates.

The details:

• Pakistan’s economy is expected to grow by 3%, though it’s still below the government’s goal of 3.6%. This is mostly due to factories picking up pace as it’s now easier to import materials and access foreign funds.

• Inflation is expected to slow down to 10%, compared to a previous estimate of 15%. In November, inflation hit a six-year low of 4.9% due to better supplies of food and fewer price hikes on global goods.

• Heavy rains earlier this year damaged crops like wheat and cotton, which are very important for Pakistan’s economy. This could slow down overall progress.

• While Pakistan’s forecast improved, neighboring India’s growth projection was reduced slightly. The ADB also warned that changes in US policies might affect Asian economies in the coming years.

Way forward: The ADB has approved two loans for Pakistan: $330 million will help expand programs like the Benazir Income Support Programme and $200 million will improve electricity systems in Lahore, Multan, and Sukkur by upgrading grids for more reliable electricity.

TLDR: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) predicts Pakistan's economy will grow by 3% in fiscal year 2024-25. Inflation is expected to drop to 10%, with November seeing a six-year low of 4.9%. However, heavy rains damaged key crops like wheat and cotton, slowing overall progress.

News Flash

✶ Good news for your bahir-rehne-wale relatives as now they will have an excuse for not bringing the latest iPhone for you.

The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has issued new rules restricting passengers from bringing large quantities of items into Pakistan. Passengers can only bring one mobile phone for personal use; extra phones will be confiscated. Items valued over $1,200 will be considered for commercial use and won’t be released, even if duties and fines are paid.

Tech

Global 🌎️

‘Septillion’ is not a reptile name apparently?

Google has introduced Willow, a new quantum computing chip that can solve problems in under five minutes - problems so complex they would take the world’s fastest supercomputer 10 septillion years to solve (that’s longer than the universe has existed).

The details:

• What’s special about Willow is that it solves one of the biggest issues in quantum computing: errors. It can correct errors more effectively as the system grows, making it easier to build larger, more reliable quantum computers.

• It demonstrated its power using a test called random circuit sampling (RCS), which is like solving an extremely hard math puzzle. However, this test has no practical use outside of just being a show off for its chip's abilities for now.

• With 105 qubits (quantum bits), Willow is still too small to solve real-world problems. To handle tasks like drug discovery or climate modeling, quantum computers will need millions of qubits.

Way forward: While these things sound exciting, practical uses for this technology are still a long way off. In future, Google aims to combine quantum algorithms with practical solutions to solve real-world problems that traditional computers can't handle.

TLDR: Google has introduced Willow, a new quantum chip that can solve problems in five minutes. In the future, quantum computers like Willow could transform areas like medicine, climate science, and finance, but we’re still decades away from seeing this in action.

What else is new in news

✶OpenAI has launched Sora, a new AI tool that turns text into videos, along with features to animate images and remix videos. Available now on Sora.com for ChatGPT subscribers, it offers different plans: Plus users can create short videos at 720p, while Pro users get longer, 1080p videos without watermarks.

Local 🇵🇰 

The EV industry wants a ‘favourite child’ treatment

Electric vehicle (EV) motorbike makers and dealers in Pakistan are asking the government and the Engineering Development Board (EDB) to include their requests in the upcoming New Energy Vehicle (NEV) policy. Their goal is to make EVs more affordable and available, helping the EV industry grow in the country.

The details:

• There are around 40 EV motorbike brands in Pakistan, selling 3,000 units a month and the government wants 30% of motorbike sales to be electric by 2028, reaching 500,000 units a year.

• Industry players want the EDB to lower import duties on CKD (Completely Knocked Down) units and reduce taxes on bike parts.

• Gasoline-powered bikes cost a lot: Rs240,000 for a 125cc model and Rs550,000 for a 150cc model, so NEVs could be a good upgrade.

• NEV bikes have cool features like reverse control, Bluetooth speakers, USB chargers, and an emergency switch to travel 20 km if needed.

Way forward: For NEVs to succeed in Pakistan, the government and industry need to work together. By supporting local production, reducing taxes, and offering incentives for research and infrastructure, the government can help lower prices and increase sales.

TLDR: Electric vehicle (EV) motorbike makers in Pakistan are urging the government to include their requests in the upcoming New Energy Vehicle (NEV) policy to make EVs more affordable and boost the industry. They want lower import duties, reduced taxes, and support for local production. With around 40 brands and 3,000 units sold monthly, NEVs offer cool features and could be a cheaper alternative to gasoline bikes.

Tech tour of news

✶Google's Year in Search 2024 shows what people in Pakistan searched the most.

Cricket took the top spot with searches for the T20 World Cup, PSL 2024, and matches like Pakistan vs India. People also searched for famous figures like Arshad Nadeem and Shoaib Malik. Pakistani dramas like Ishq Murshid and Bollywood films like Animal and Dunki were popular. In food, recipes for banana bread, malpura, and garlic bread were trending. For tech, people searched for Gemini and smartphones like Infinix Note 30 and iPhone 16 Pro Max.

More interesting Itla (اطلاع) we consumed:

⛩️ We recently watched the depiction of anime-brilliance in a show called Blue eye Samurai on Netflix. Stunning animation, amazing sound effects, but also a deeply emotional and engaging storyline with some of the best arcs we’ve seen so far. The inclusion of intelligent feminist, socio-political thoughts, and the Japan setting was an added bonus.

🌳 Researchers have found a new ancient human species called Homo juluensis (and no, your youngest sibling is not part of it). This species lived in eastern Asia between 300,000 and 50,000 years ago, using stone tools and hunting animals. The scientists believe Homo juluensis is a separate species because of its large skull and broad teeth, but its teeth are similar to those of the Denisovans (a mysterious group of humans). You can see the very interesting human family tree here.